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Economic Calendar
Microeconomic analysis across employment, inflation and central banks for the US and EU, translated into scenarios for XAU/USD and EUR/USD.
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Upcoming
20
next 28 days
High impact
14
releases flagged high
AI covered
20
74% of calendar
Next release
Germany Unemployment Change
Wed, Oct 7 · 07:55 UTC
Pre-event briefing
Next week outlook
Context
The upcoming week is pivotal for both the US and EU as key employment and inflation data are set to be released. The US reports, particularly the Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI, are expected to provide insights into the labor market and inflationary pressures, which will influence Fed policy. In the EU, Germany's unemployment change and Eurozone CPI will be closely watched to assess economic health and inflation trends.
Key events
- Germany Unemployment Change (Oct 7): Forecast +15K, previous +12K
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Oct 7): Forecast 6.4%, previous 6.4%
- US Average Hourly Earnings (Oct 8): Forecast 0.3%, previous 0.4%
- US Non-Farm Payrolls (Oct 8): Forecast 180K, previous 142K
- US Unemployment Rate (Oct 8): Forecast 4.2%, previous 4.2%
- Germany CPI (Oct 9): Forecast 0.1%, previous 0.2%
- US CPI (Oct 9): Forecast 3.1%, previous 3.0%
- Eurozone CPI Flash (Oct 11): Forecast 2.2%, previous 2.3%
What the market is pricing
- A strong US Non-Farm Payrolls report could lead to a hawkish shift in Fed expectations, supporting the USD and pressuring gold.
- If Eurozone inflation remains elevated, it may bolster the EUR against the USD, especially if US data disappoints.
- The market is currently pricing in a stable US unemployment rate, but any deviation could shift sentiment significantly.
Risks
- A significant miss in US employment data could lead to a dovish outlook for the Fed, weakening the USD and supporting gold.
- Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation in the US could lead to a hawkish Fed stance, boosting the USD and pressuring gold.
- Eurozone inflation data could surprise to the upside, which would support the EUR against the USD, particularly if US data is weak.
Target
1.05
Invalidation
EUR/USD falls below 1.03
The Eurozone inflation data will be critical in determining the EUR's strength against the USD. If inflation remains stable or increases, it could support the EUR. However, if US data is strong, it may offset any positive impact from the Eurozone data.
Conditional sequences
- If Eurozone CPI > 2.2% → EUR strengthens → EUR/USD bias neutral, targeting 1.05
Target
1800
Invalidation
XAU/USD rises above 1850
If the US Non-Farm Payrolls exceed expectations, it would likely lead to a hawkish Fed outlook, strengthening the USD and putting downward pressure on gold. Additionally, if US CPI surprises to the upside, it could further reinforce this bearish sentiment for gold.
Conditional sequences
- If US Non-Farm Payrolls > 180K → USD strengthens → XAU/USD bias bearish, targeting 1800
Post-event review
Post-announcement re-analysis
Context
The recent releases of key employment and inflation data from the US and EU have provided significant insights into the economic landscape. The ECB's decision to lower the deposit facility rate and the US inflation data showing a decrease in both headline and core CPI suggest a shift in monetary policy expectations. This analysis will assess the implications for the EUR/USD and XAU/USD pairs.
Key events
- ECB Rate Decision: Actual 2.00% vs Forecast 2.15% vs Previous 2.15%
- US CPI (YoY): Actual 2.9% vs Forecast 3.0% vs Previous 3.1%
- US Core CPI (MoM): Actual 0.2% vs Forecast 0.3% vs Previous 0.3%
- Eurozone HICP Flash (YoY): Actual 2.1% vs Forecast 2.2% vs Previous 2.3%
- US ADP Employment Change: Actual 143K vs Forecast 130K vs Previous 99K
- Germany Unemployment Change: Actual +18K vs Forecast +15K vs Previous +12K
- US Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 215K vs Forecast 220K vs Previous 218K
What the market is pricing
- The dovish surprise from the ECB may weaken the EUR against the USD, especially with US employment data showing strength.
- The decline in US inflation could lead to a more dovish Fed outlook, supporting gold prices.
- The market is now factoring in a potential shift in rate expectations, with a focus on the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Risks
- A stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report could lead to a hawkish Fed stance, boosting the USD and pressuring gold.
- If Eurozone inflation data surprises to the upside, it may support the EUR against the USD despite the ECB's dovish move.
- Any significant miss in US employment data could lead to a dovish outlook for the Fed, weakening the USD and supporting gold.
Target
1.03
Invalidation
If Eurozone inflation exceeds 2.3%
The ECB's dovish rate decision combined with lower inflation in the Eurozone suggests a weakening of the EUR against the USD. The strong US employment data could further bolster the USD, leading to downward pressure on EUR/USD.
Conditional sequences
- If US Non-Farm Payrolls > 180K → market reacts negatively to EUR → EUR/USD bias bearish towards 1.03
Target
1850
Invalidation
If US Non-Farm Payrolls exceed 180K significantly
The dovish surprise from the ECB and lower US inflation data suggest a potential weakening of the USD, which could support gold prices. Additionally, the strong ADP employment change indicates resilience in the labor market, but the overall inflation trend is supportive for gold.
Conditional sequences
- If US Non-Farm Payrolls < 180K → market reacts positively to gold → XAU/USD bias bullish towards 1850
Release calendar
Past 7 days and the next 28 days
| Date | Region | Category | Impact | Event | AI analysis | Forecast | Previous | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wed, Sep 30 12:15 UTC | EU | Central Bank | ECB Rate Decision prev meeting · Deposit facility rate | Event | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.00% | |
Fri, Oct 2 12:30 UTC | US | Inflation | US CPI (YoY) prev month · Headline consumer inflation | Event | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | |
12:30 UTC | US | Inflation | US Core CPI (MoM) prev month · Excludes food & energy | Event | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
Sat, Oct 3 09:00 UTC | EU | Inflation | Eurozone HICP Flash (YoY) prev month · Harmonised index of consumer prices | Event | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | |
12:15 UTC | US | Employment | US ADP Employment Change prev month · Private payrolls estimate | Event | 130K | 99K | 143K | |
Sun, Oct 4 07:55 UTC | EU | Employment | Germany Unemployment Change prev month · German labour office data | Event | +15K | +12K | +18K | |
Mon, Oct 5 12:30 UTC | US | Employment | US Initial Jobless Claims week · Weekly labour-market gauge | Event | 220K | 218K | 215K | |
Wed, Oct 7 07:55 UTC | EU | Employment | Germany Unemployment Change current month | Pre-event | +15K | +12K | — | |
09:00 UTC | EU | Employment | Eurozone Unemployment Rate current month | Pre-event | 6.4% | 6.4% | — | |
Thu, Oct 8 12:30 UTC | US | Employment | US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) current month · Wage-inflation proxy | Pre-event | 0.3% | 0.4% | — | |
12:30 UTC | US | Employment | US Non-Farm Payrolls current month · Key employment report | Pre-event | 180K | 142K | — | |
12:30 UTC | US | Employment | US Unemployment Rate current month | Pre-event | 4.2% | 4.2% | — | |
Fri, Oct 9 12:00 UTC | EU | Inflation | Germany CPI (MoM) current month | Pre-event | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | |
12:30 UTC | US | Inflation | US CPI (YoY) current month · Headline consumer inflation | Pre-event | 3.1% | 3.0% | — | |
12:30 UTC | US | Inflation | US Core CPI (MoM) current month | Pre-event | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | |
Sat, Oct 10 12:30 UTC | US | Inflation | US PPI (MoM) current month · Producer prices | Pre-event | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | |
15:00 UTC | US | Central Bank | Fed Chair Speech — · Policy guidance risk | Pre-event | — | |||
Sun, Oct 11 09:00 UTC | EU | Inflation | Eurozone CPI Flash (YoY) current month | Pre-event | 2.2% | 2.3% | — | |
09:00 UTC | EU | Inflation | Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) current month | Pre-event | 2.7% | 2.8% | — | |
Mon, Oct 12 09:00 UTC | EU | Inflation | Eurozone PPI (MoM) current month | Pre-event | -0.2% | 0.1% | — | |
Tue, Oct 13 12:15 UTC | EU | Central Bank | ECB Rate Decision current meeting · Deposit facility rate | Pending | 2.00% | 2.15% | — | |
12:45 UTC | EU | Central Bank | ECB Press Conference — · Forward guidance | Pending | — | |||
Thu, Oct 15 12:30 UTC | US | Inflation | US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) current month · Fed's preferred inflation gauge | Pending | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | |
Fri, Oct 16 18:00 UTC | US | Central Bank | FOMC Rate Decision current meeting · Federal funds target range upper bound | Pending | 4.25% | 4.50% | — | |
Sun, Oct 18 14:00 UTC | US | Employment | US JOLTS Job Openings prev month | Pending | 8.10M | 8.04M | — | |
Tue, Oct 20 11:30 UTC | EU | Central Bank | ECB Monetary Policy Minutes prev meeting | Pending | — | |||
Thu, Oct 22 18:00 UTC | US | Central Bank | FOMC Meeting Minutes prev meeting | Pending | — |
Analysis history
- ok Post-event Post-Announcement Re-Analysis: US and EU Economic Data Impact Oct 6, 13:10 UTC openai/gpt-4o-mini
- ok Weekly Weekly Outlook: Employment and Inflation Data Ahead Oct 6, 13:10 UTC openai/gpt-4o-mini
Market data powered by Yahoo Finance and news headlines via Investing.com & Yahoo Finance RSS. For informational purposes only, not investment advice. Data may be delayed.